The challenges of 2024 have rolled into 2025 — tariffs, low demand, and freight rate hikes are already at the top of the list. Add to that geopolitical turmoil, changing trade routes, and provider shifts, and it’s clear that brands need a strong logistics risk management strategy to stay resilient.
Planning for every possible scenario isn’t realistic, but identifying the main logistics risk factors and preparing contingency plans can help e-commerce brands make smarter logistics decisions in the year ahead.
Logistics risk management is about anticipating potential disruptions in supply chains and building strategies to mitigate them. For e-commerce brands, this means:
Reducing cost volatility from tariffs and duties.
Preparing for delays in trade routes.
Ensuring continuity of service when providers shift or rates increase.
Building flexibility into logistics planning to adapt to global uncertainty.
Top Logistics Risk Factors in 2025
Planning for any tariff scenario
Proposed US tariffs could significantly affect global supply chains. Even without final clarity, import tariffs are expected to rise.
Risk: Higher costs for goods entering the US.
Risk Management Tip: Check your product’s Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) code and country of origin. Explore reclassification or sourcing from countries with favorable trade agreements.
US duty de minimus changes
Lots of changes stateside in 2024 as a new administration rolls in, although this one has been in the works for some time now. While totally getting rid of the de Minimus duty exemption, aka section 321, wasn’t a viable option, the US has opted for a much more direct approach to its problems.
That means that those affected by the new rules will no longer be able to import items under 800 USD into the USA duty-free and expedited.
The new ruling, combined with the IMMEX program designed to restrict duty-free apparel imports, may make things tricky for e-commerce brands in 2025. However, there’s no need to panic. Be sure that you are working with logistics providers that understand the new rules and can provide you the flexibility to work around them.
Thanks to port strikes, tragic disasters, climate change, and geopolitical turmoil surrounding two of the world’s most-used canals, shippers rerouted a lot in 2024. While the drought in Panama has calmed, tensions in the region seem to be building, giving anything but confidence.
Uncertainty surrounding key trade routes and heightened demand in China’s e-commerce industry has led to a particularly strong year for air cargo demand growth. An estimated 50 percent of air cargo volume out of Asia in 2024 was taken up by e-commerce products.
Growth was particularly high at the end of the year, with December global rates at 11 percent growth YoY.
Now that the pre-Lunar New Year shipping push is over, rates are expected to cool significantly. Plus, expectations about new US tariffs and De Minimus restrictions will slow down Chinese e-commerce exports, a large contributor to current air freight demand.
Experts expect that growth will slow to around 4 to 6 percent YoY.
What might this mean for e-commerce brands? First of all, it’s likely that brands like Shein and Temu will change their fulfillment models to more ocean shipping. This could mean more demand for ocean freight and containers and more traffic on longer routes.
Provider shifts & rate hikes
Major changes among top logistics providers leave a lot of uncertainty about coverage and costs in the year 2025.
The US postal service just changed up a lot of pricing structures, ie getting rid of ounce-based pricing, which will make shipping light packages a lot more costly. In the UK, you have the recent Royal Mail/IDS sale to Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky to worry about.
Across the board, we are seeing logistics services consolidating and getting acquired by venture capitalists and the like. There’s a lot of concern whether those changes will lead to better quality, or just more money for shareholders.
Strategies for Effective Logistics Risk Management
Scenario Planning: Model best-case and worst-case logistics scenarios.
Supplier Diversification: Source from multiple countries to reduce tariff risks.
Technology Integration: Use logistics platforms for real-time visibility across supply chains.
Agile Partnerships: Work with 3PL/4PL providers who can pivot operations quickly.
Your best bet in 2025 is a flexible logistics plan
At Wayfindr (formerly CBIP Logistics), we help brands prepare for uncertainty by building flexible, global supply chain strategies. As a 4PL provider, we:
Offer end-to-end logistics management so e-commerce brands can focus on growth while we handle contingency planning.
Integrate multiple logistics partners into one centralized platform.
Monitor risks across global markets and adapt fulfillment models as conditions change.
If you’d like to make sure your logistics operation stays safe from disaster in 2025, get in contact with us for a free logistics consultation.
About Author
Nick Bartlett
Co-founder & Director
Nick co-founded Wayfindr to help brands design and build market-leading carbon-neutral D2C logistics. As Director, he brings 15+ years of experience across logistics, marketing, supply chain and retail from Asia Pacific to the world.
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